Milton Regains Category 5 Strength; Destructive Storm Surge, Winds, Flooding Rain Expected

H​urricane Milton has strengthened into a Category 5 once again. The storm continues to pose a grave danger to Florida, where its potentially historic strike will bring destructive, life-threatening storm surge, widespread wind damage, flooding rainfall and tornadoes beginning Wednesday.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its Tuesday morning discussion.

All preparations should be rushed to completion on Tuesday and if you’re in an area prone to storm surge, follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if ordered. This is a serious situation with the NHC forecasting a storm surge as much as 10 to 15 feet above ground level along the western Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, if the peak surge arrives at high tide.

(​MAPS TRACKER: Spaghetti Models And More)

H​ere’s the latest status on Milton: The hurricane is centered 480 miles southwest of Tampa. It’s a Category 5 packing 165 mph winds as of 5 p.m. EDT and is tracking east-northeast at 9 mph.

Milton has grown in size over the last 24 hours, with tropical-storm-force winds now up to 140 miles from its center. It will continue to grow even larger on approach to Florida, which means its impacts will affect a big area.

H​ere’s where hurricane and storm surge alerts are in effect: Hurricane warnings cover much of central Florida from the Gulf side to the Atlantic side, including the Tampa Bay area, Fort Myers, Orlando, Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach. This means hurricane (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) conditions are expected within the warning area generally within 36 hours, or in this case beginning late Wednesday into early Thursday.

V​arious tropical storm watches and warnings cover other parts of Florida, southeast Georgia, southeast South Carolina and southern North Carolina, as shown in the map below.

A storm surge warning stretches along Florida’s Gulf Coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. Part of Florida’s Atlantic coastline is also in a storm surge warning, from Sebastian Inlet northward to Altamaha Sound in Georgia, including the St. Johns River in northeast Florida. This means a life-threatening water rise from storm surge is expected in these areas, generally within 36 hours.

H​ere’s the latest timing and intensity forecast: T​he forecast calls for fluctuations in intensity over the next 12-24 hours, then Milton will then weaken gradually on approach to Florida because of increasing wind shear and dry air, but it should remain a major hurricane through landfall sometime later Wednesday into early Thursday.

It’s important to note that this weakening won’t reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall. As mentioned before, Milton will also grow larger on approach to Florida, allowing its wind, storm surge and rainfall impacts to sprawl out across a bigger area both within and outside of its forecast cone.

I​n short, do not let your guard down if you see Milton weakening on approach to landfall as this is expected and the hurricane will continue to be an extremely serious threat to Florida.

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

I​mpacts Forecast

S​torm Surge

The latest NHC forecast calls for storm surge to be as much as 10 to 15 feet above ground level if the peak surge coincides with high tide along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Damaging storm surge could be as much as 8 to 12 feet as far south as Charlotte Harbor and Fort Myers Beach.

Please note that adjustments to the storm surge forecast shown below are possible based on future track updates for Milton.

Storm surge will be most destructive near and to the south of where the storm’s center crosses the coast. If you’re in an area prone to storm surge, you should follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if ordered.

I​f the storm surge forecast materializes for the Tampa Bay, it would be the highest there in more than a century. A track near or north of the bay would bring the highest surge potential there, while a track a bit farther south would shift the worst surge southward.

S​torm surge should start building up on Wednesday before likely peaking Wednesday night into early Thursday.

L​ow tide on much of the west coast of Florida is Wednesday afternoon and high tide is Thursday morning.

S​ome storm surge could also inundate parts of Florida’s east coast as well as coastal Georgia and South Carolina because of winds blowing onshore when Milton passes by Wednesday night through Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions could arrive in western Florida as soon as early Wednesday, which means all preparations should be completed before then.

The strongest winds capable of structural damage, downing trees and knocking out power will occur near where the center of Milton crosses the coast in west-central Florida and then tracks inland through central Florida toward the Orlando area. Power outages may last for days in these areas.

The timing for those strongest winds begins late Wednesday along the western Gulf Coast, then spreads east across central Florida through the first part of Thursday.

Areas farther away from the landfall point in northern and southern Florida will see some strong wind gusts as well that could at least down trees and cause scattered power outages.

B​elow is a look at the peak wind threat based on the current track of Milton. Note that this forecast could shift in future updates.

(This map from the National Weather Service shows the potential strongest winds (likely in gusts) that could occur. Areas in red or purple colors are most probable to see hurricane-force capable of more widespread tree damage, power outages and at least some damage to buildings. Areas in yellow and orange could see at least some sporadic downed trees and power outages.)

Rainfall Flooding

R​ainfall has been soaking Florida since the weekend because of a front draped across the state. Flood watches are posted across much of the Florida Peninsula because of this rain preceding Milton’s arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself by Wednesday.

T​otals across the central and northern Florida Peninsula could be 6 to 12 inches, with locally up to 18 inches through Thursday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding.

N​OAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare “high risk” flood threat for parts of central Florida, including the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas, for Wednesday and Wednesday night because of this excessive rainfall.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)

T​ornadoes

A​n isolated tornado threat may develop in much of west-central and southern Florida by Tuesday night.

The threat of a few tornadoes will then continue Wednesday and Wednesday night in the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

An isolated tornado threat could linger into Thursday in east-central and southern Florida.

R​ecap Of Milton So Far

T​ropical Depression Fourteen formed on the morning of Oct. 5 in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and shortly thereafter was deemed Tropical Storm Milton.

T​he storm then rapidly intensified into Hurricane Milton about 24 hours later at 1 p.m. CDT on Oct. 6.

T​he next day, Milton underwent another incredible round of rapid intensification. Winds increased from 90 mph at 1 a.m. CDT on Oct. 7 to 180 mph just 15 hours later at 4 p.m. CDT.

Milton’s 180 mph winds made it one of only nine other Atlantic hurricanes to hit that wind threshold or higher.

Its pressure dropped to 897 millibars, which is the lowest observed in any Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005. That also ranks as the fifth lowest pressure on record for any Atlantic hurricane.